Fireball, explained
Fireball doubles the price of a Pick ticket for a second chance built on digit substitution. Here's the actual math — using Pick 2 straight, the simplest case — and why the add-on is quietly the better half of the ticket.
The base play: 1 in 100, pays $50
A $1 Pick 2 straight is a bet on an exact two-digit number, 00–99. One hundred equally likely outcomes, one winner: 1 in 100, paying $50. A fair 1-in-100 bet would pay $100. Florida pays half of fair. That's the base game: exactly 50¢ of expected value per $1, on every play type.
Add the Fireball: a third digit enters
With Fireball, the drawing effectively produces three digits: the two winning digits, plus one Fireball digit (0–9) drawn separately. Your Fireball play wins if replacing either one of the drawn digits with the Fireball digit produces your number.
Count the substitutions for a straight play on, say, 42:
- Replace the first drawn digit: need the draw to end in 2 (1/10) and the Fireball to be 4 (1/10) → 1/100.
- Replace the second drawn digit: need the draw to start with 4 (1/10) and the Fireball to be 2 (1/10) → 1/100.
Two winning patterns of 1/100 each ≈ 1 in 50 — the odds halve. (The overlap case only matters for doubles like 44 and is a rounding error.) That's the whole trick: one substitute digit, twice the positions, double the ways to win.
Why the price doubles — and where the value hides
Fireball costs as much as the base play: a $1 straight becomes a $2 ticket. The Fireball half wins at 1 in 50 and pays $30. Thirty dollars at 1-in-50 is 60¢ of expected value per $1 — compare the base play's 50¢. Live from our tables right now: the Fireball half returns 60.0%.
The same 60% holds across Pick 3 ($200 at 1-in-333), Pick 4 ($1,500 at 1-in-2,500) and Pick 5 ($12,000 at 1-in-20,000). So a $2 straight-with-Fireball ticket returns (50% + 60%) / 2 = 55% — the add-on is the better half of the ticket, every time. Still a losing bet; just the less-bad half.
The rule of thumb
If you're going to play a Pick game anyway: the boxes return 48%, the straights and pairs 50%, the Fireball half 60%. Money you were spending regardless does strictly better in the Fireball half. Money you weren't spending does best staying in your pocket.
Full tables on each game page: Pick 2 · Pick 3 · Pick 4 · Pick 5