Box vs straight
Box plays win more often; straights win bigger. Most players assume that trade is fair. On two of Florida's four Pick games, it isn't — boxes quietly pay a 2-point tax.
The baseline: everything pays half
Florida prices the Pick games at half of fair. A $1 Pick 3 straight hits 1 in 1,000 and pays $500 — a fair bet would pay $1,000. Front pairs, back pairs, front numbers: every one of them, exactly 50¢ of expected value per $1. The game doesn't hide it; it's the same haircut everywhere. Almost.
The exception: Pick 3 & Pick 4 boxes
A 6-way box on Pick 3 wins whenever your three digits come up in any order — six ways to win, 1 in 166.67. Half-fair would pay $83.33… rounded to $83, or the $80 Florida actually pays? $80. That's 48¢ per $1, not 50¢. Same story on every box variant of Pick 3 and Pick 4 — computed live from the official tables:
| Game | Box type | Return per $1 |
|---|---|---|
| Pick 2 | 2-Way Box | 50.0% |
| Pick 3 | 3-Way Box | 48.0% |
| Pick 3 | 6-Way Box | 47.9% |
| Pick 4 | 4-Way Box | 47.9% |
| Pick 4 | 6-Way Box | 48.0% |
| Pick 4 | 12-Way Box | 48.0% |
| Pick 4 | 24-Way Box | 48.0% |
| Pick 5 | 5-Way Box | 50.0% |
| Pick 5 | 10-Way Box | 50.0% |
| Pick 5 | 20-Way Box | 50.0% |
| Pick 5 | 30-Way Box | 49.8% |
| Pick 5 | 60-Way Box | 49.8% |
| Pick 5 | 120-Way Box | 49.9% |
Note the pattern: Pick 2 and Pick 5 boxes pay the full ~50% — only Pick 3 and Pick 4, the popular ones, take the extra two points. The better odds cost you nothing on the games nobody boxes, and 4% of your prize on the games everybody does.
What to do with this
Odds and value are different questions. Boxes win six (or twenty-four) times as often — if what you're buying is the feeling of winning, that's a legitimate reason to box. But per dollar of expected value the ranking is unambiguous: Fireball half ~60¢ > straights & pairs 50¢ > Pick 3/4 boxes 48¢. If you box Pick 3 out of habit, the same habit on Pick 5 doesn't pay the tax — and the strongest ticket the Pick games sell is a straight with Fireball.
Full tables: Pick 2 · Pick 3 · Pick 4 · Pick 5 · tonight's board